WaterInCrisis.com

Mega Projects

By Joe Pikrone

Introduction:  Throughout the world, we as a planet are beginning to see and experience the effects of our arrogant and blatant overuse and over pollution of our planets greatest natural resource:  water.  From poor countries in Africa who do not have access to clean drinking water, to the expanding deserts of the Middle East, to the wealthy industrialized countries, the planet is sinking into a worsening water situation.  Although it is not considered a crisis in many countries, it has been a constant detriment to others, where people must travel great distances in order to get water to drink. 

Farmers cannot grow crops, people have little or no clean water to drink, and as a result, certain countries are taking bold steps to try to address these worsening situations.  This paper covers a particular Mega Project in China, where the government has concluded the best way to address a worsening water situation in the North by invoking a massive re-routing of rivers in the South and West.  China is a perfect example where overpopulation, poor infrastructure planning, and pollution have led to drastic measures.  In addition, it looks at some futuristic projects on the earth and on the moon.

 

Some would argue that projects of this magnitude are too costly and unnecessary.  In the case of China, they might be right.  But although Mega Projects might not be the solution to today’s current water shortages, and conservation might be a better route, there are new concepts on the horizon to address future concerns that might not be able to be solved through conservation and responsible thinking alone.

 

There is no single answer to solve our water issues, but a broad array of solutions will be necessary to ensure our solvency.  As for the present, we are left to deal with things the best we know how.  However, new discoveries are being made, and new ideas are being dreamed up that may be the answer in the future. 

 Present day attempt at a major solution:  South to North Diversion Project

History:  The largest water project in the world is currently underway in China. a massive project designed to bring water from Chinas flood-prone south to arid and desert-like north.  This concept was first proposed by Mao Zedong in the early 1952.  His idea that the flood-prone south could “Spare a little water” to help the arid North, was not achievable at the time.  Although it was considered fanciful thinking by many experts, Mao’s staff took it to heart, and began plans to accomplish this task.  After 50 years of planning and deliberation, the project began construction in 2002 with the Eastern route in December of 2002.  The project consists of three routes along the Eastern, Western, and central parts of the country.  Upon completion (expected 2050), all of China’s major rivers will be connected, and major hubs such as Beijing and Tianjin will have an ample water supply[1]

http://www.water-technology.net/projects/south_north/

Politics:  This project has been plagued by protests, delays, and international opposition from its inception.  A prime example is that recently, China began relocating over 440,000 who would otherwise be in the path of the proposed construction.[2]  One Chinese farmer who was being relocated commented that “[The government] told us they were moving us to new lands to become rich and prosperous but they’ve thrown us into a fire pit,” sobs Ms Li. “The new land and houses are worthless and our lives there are so bitter”[3].  The full interview can be found at http://video.ft.com/v/63216359001/Dec-14-China-to-displace-half-a-million. 

Many of the government’s leaders, who are engineers by training, have little regard for the individuals they are moving.  It is becoming harder though.  Since many Chinese are becoming wealthier and better organized, the government is increasingly wary of stirring up grass-roots discontent that could grow into a wider political opposition movement.  The leaders are forging ahead despite this, and despite advice from their own engineers that the project could have unintended consequences, and might not fully achieve its goal.  Faced with huge financial and human costs but, but unwilling to accept that it was a bad idea to begin with, the government has changed the primary reason it claims that the project is necessary; “Behind closed doors the main justification for the project seems to have been reduced to its strategic importance in case of a war or some other emergency situation,” according to one former official[4].A problem that China is now realizing is that water consumption has actually increased in the north in expectation of this new water supply, says Ma Jun of the Beijing-based Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs[5]. 

Economics:  The current estimated price of the Western part of the project is $62b Yuan, or around $9.5 billion dollars.  China has reserved 53.87bn Yuan ($7.9bn) for the south-to-north water diversion project. Of the 53.87bn Yuan, the central government has budgeted 15.42bn, special funds in treasury bonds from central government accounts for 10.65bn Yuan, and local governments are funding 7.99bn Yuan. Loans will contribute 19.81bn Yuan for the project.  The eastern and central routes are estimated to cost around $38.6 billion dollars[1].  The figure is constantly being revised, due to changing construction and relocation costs.  Unknown are the costs of relocating hundreds of thousands of people, their property that is being demolished, or the unknown consequences to the environment.  Although there has been a vast amount of money set aside for the farmers and other peoples being relocated, much of the money is not reaching the intended recipients.  It is widely suspected that government corruption and theft is where much of the relocation money is ending up, as with what happened when over 1.3 million people were relocated for the Three Gorges Dam.

Delays:  The eastern route was expected to supply Shandong Province and the northern part of Jiangsu during 2007.  Several key projects of the eastern route have been currently completed. However, the work on the route was delayed due to farm and industrial pollution that endangered the quality of water. It is expected to be completed by 2013. 

Construction on the central route began in December 2003, and was expected to be able to provide Beijing with drinking water in time for the 2008 Olympics.  By Sept, 2008, only 307km out of 1267km had been completed.  This is mostly due to unforeseen delays dealing with the relocation of thousands of people, as well as environmental concerns about contamination.  Work is now expected to be completed by 2014.  According to water technology.net (ND), “Declining reserves in the Danjiangkou Reservoir have led to the suggestion of drawing water from the Three Gorges Reservoir to bolster the supply and meet the demands of this part of the project.”

Construction on the Western route, which was scheduled to start construction last year, will involve some serious engineering and technical obstacles.  It involves working 3000-5000m above sea level, where the atmosphere and climate can make for some dangerous and unstable working conditions.  Scheduled to be completed in 2050, it is too early to tell if this part of the project will be delayed.  Chinese officials are taking steps to hasten to expected deadline of this section of the diversion project, taking into consideration that an additional 4.5 billion cubic meters of water will be required by 2030 to maintain economic growth in the area.

Uncertainties:  Many experts question the wisdom of such a massive project.  Engineers within China sight that the primary goal of supplying water to the Northern cities would be better served with conservation efforts.  Many experts also say that although the project will supply water for the immediate future, it might cause massive water shortages in the south.  Many farmers are already suffering from the effects of diminished water since some of the rivers have already been re-routed.  It rains less in the south that it did only a few years ago, which causes the grass to grow slower, meaning that farm animals have less to graze on.

Although mega-projects might seem like a good idea, there are an untold number of things that must be considered.  I don’t feel that this project will be a success, and it is certainly not worth the costs in terms of monetary and human costs.  “Unfortunately we live in a system where our unelected leaders push ahead with mad dreams rather than take responsibility after bringing disasters to the ordinary people,” says Dai Qing, a conservationist who has spent time in China’s most notorious political prison for her criticism of government-led environmental destruction. “But perhaps if the leaders really believe their slogans and really decide it’s time to live in harmony with nature, then this will be the last mad mega-project we see in China.”[6] This sentiment is echoed throughout the world, and especially by citizens directly affected in China.

China’s mega-project is actually underway.  Still only a concept is one futuristic idea for reclaiming deserts by drawing massive amounts of sea water into their interiors to create hige lakes and their attendant ecosystems. 

Concept:  Desert Aqua-Net Plan

 

The Concept:  Approximately 1/3 of the Earth’s land area is desert.  A concept for a future mega project, proposed by Shimz, a Japanese company would involve engineering a massive “Aqua Net” in desert areas, like Northern Africa as a prime example.  The concept would involve digging massive lakes in the desert that are to be fed with seawater.  The idea is that bringing in saltwater would increase humidity and decrease temperature, making for a more habitable environment.  The increased humidity and evaporation of saltwater from the man-made lakes would in theory produce rain, which could then be collected as freshwater.

Aqueducts would connect these man-made lakes, providing an easy source of transportation, as well as feeding all lakes that are connected.  Seawater would be gravity fed from the ocean, with supplemental pumping stations were necessary.  The concept also includes building habitable cities in the center of these lakes, where the climate would be most favorable for human life.  The aqueducts, assisted by huge water pumps, would be used to ensure the continuous flow of fresh seawater to cities made in the center of these man-made lakes, which would assist in the re-habitation of the deserts.  Entire self sufficient economies are being conceived, with sustainable vegetation and farming being possible.  The aqueducts would be used as transportation routes, making for convenient shipping lanes.

In summary, the Aqua-Net concept would include:

1.      Multiple seawater lakes, each surrounded by a continuous underground wall reaching all the way to the impermeable layer, are created.

2.       Water is re-circulated. Pumps are used to transport sea water to lakes. Gravity moves water to neighboring lakes.

3.       A network of canals connects the manmade lakes.

4.       Artificial islands are formed on the lakes.

5.       The transportation network will incorporate both land and water systems A project of this magnitude has economic costs that would almost amount to the worlds GDP for an entire year.  However, the economic and practical benefits might be required in the future as the world’s population grows.  There is currently no funding or consideration for this proposal as it stands.[7] Water on the Moon and its possibilities

 

Discovery:  On 10/9/09, the NASA LCROSS (Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite) impacted a shadowy crater on the moon, and discovered evidence of water, according to Jonas Dino of the NASA Ames Research Center (2009).  NASA scientists have long suspected that the large concentrations of hydrogen at the moons sun starved north and south poles had a heavy indication that water was present.  On 10/9/09, LCROSS impacted one of the moons permanently shadowed craters with the upper part of a two-stage rocket, creating a plume of dust, debris, and a vapor that is confirmed to contain water.

 

"We are ecstatic," said Anthony Colaprete, LCROSS project scientist and principal investigator at NASA's Ames Research Center in Moffett Field, Calif (2009). "Multiple lines of evidence show water was present in both the high angle vapor plume and the ejecta curtain created by the LCROSS Centaur impact. The concentration and distribution of water and other substances requires further analysis, but it is safe to say Cabeus holds water.”  Cabeus is the name of the crater that the discovery was made in.

Possibilities:  The discovery of water on the moon opens up many new doors in the area of space exploration, as well as the potential to have a permanent lunar base on the moon.  The availability of water means that humans would have a water source to grow food, make fuel, and even create a small atmosphere.  It probably would not be feasible to consider mining for water then transfer it to Earth, and is not considered to be a solution for the water crisis on Earth.  In fact, the excitement that this discovery has caused has invited many criticisms that e should be spending the billions of dollars on our water problems at home first, as opposed to looking for water sources outside our atmosphere[8].

 

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